In Cyprus negotiations, this time it’s different

The leaders of both Turkish and Greek communities in Cyprus recently signed a joint declaration committing themselves to a confederation of two federal states. Thus the Cyprus negotiations restarted. That is better than the alternative. But there is reason to look beyond the usual pessimism of Cyprus watchers. I think this round is truly set to be different. Let me explain why.

I first travelled to Cyprus in 1981. It was right after the military coup in Turkey. I was a university student on a school trip. And what was a young economics student’s first impression conflict? I remember standing on the roof of the Ledra Palace Hotel in the U.N. buffer zone in Lefkoşa. I was looking at the south side of the city with my back turned to the north side. Turkish Lefkoşa was like a sleepy Central Anatolian town, while Greek Nicosia resembled a modern European city.

Last week, I was at Larnaca airport, driving toward Nicosia. The road I was on was no better than those in the north. Nicosia these days looks very much like Lefkoşa. After about 30 something years, the regional disparity is less of a problem. It is definitely still there, but not as severe as it was before.

Forty years ago, the per capita income of the south was about six times that of the north. Now that disparity has declined to around threefold. And that is not only due to the recent economic crisis in the south. The disparity started to decline before that. The past 10 years especially saw significant change. I consider this as the first major difference.

Let me come to the second issue regarding why this round of negotiations is different in Cyprus. Have you seen the Eurobarometer survey? The question that interested me is something like this: “which of...