Ankara’s to do list

It has already become certain that ISIL’s (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) invasion of Mosul will pass into history as the “pre-Mosul and post-Mosul era.” The post-Mosul order turns the regional balance of power upside down. Hence, Turkey has to make a completely new reading of the region and adapt its policies accordingly.

Let’s start with the winners of the new equation. Bashar al-Assad has survived through the civil war in his country by depending on ISIL. It has provided ISIL with absolute liberty so that it could fight against the Syrian opposition forces. In other words, he indirectly cooperated with the organization. In addition, he presented himself to the West as the only stability and security element in Syria against ISIL.

Under the current circumstances, the West pioneered by the U.S. will embrace al-Assad stronger as a life buoy. Hence, he has secured his place even more. On top of this, his only allies in the region, Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, are now cooperating against ISIL, which might also target al-Assad at any moment. This will make him join their camp sooner or later.

This would also put Turkey and the West on the same front with al-Assad since they are now supporting al-Maliki against ISIL. Therefore, Ankara will have to radically change its Syria policy which had been based on confronting al-Assad.

The Kurds are the other winners of the new order, not only in Iraq, but also in the region. The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) offered help to Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to confront ISIL. They had been at odds for long time. This development hints at rapprochement not only...