Turkey's new lobbying motto should be 'it's the economy, stupid'

Blessed with its geographic position, Turkey has always benefited from having strategic importance stemming from its critical location.

During the Cold War, its importance stemmed from the fact that it was a frontier country between the communist camp and the Western capitalist camp. Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Turkey has continued to maintain its strategic importance, on the frontier separating the West from the turmoil of the Middle East.

Throughout the 1990s and 2000s it became a more proactive player. As it shared the same values and interests as the transatlantic community, Turkey?s strategic importance increased as a benevolent actor. As it diversified its relations with the rest of the world, its improved relations with Russia or other actors in the Middle East did not lead to serious clashes in its interests with the Western world.

But over time, and especially with the current Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, Turkey has found itself less and less on the same page as the transatlantic community on certain key issues.

That has not diminished its strategic importance. In fact, the contrary is the case. Turkey?s importance now stems not from its contribution as a like-minded, benevolent actor, but rather from its nuisance value.

As a country you can enjoy having a nuisance value, continuing to feel strategically important as international and regional actors cannot afford to ignore you and are forced to take your views and standing into account.

However, that country would then have a problem when it has to ask for favors from ?allies? with whom it has thorny relations. ?What for, what?s in it for me?? those allies will ask.

In the short to mid-term, I think Turkey will...