British and Turkish elections, similar results, different outcomes

May 7 is the date of parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom. A month later, on June 7, Turkey will go through the same test. Being two Allies in NATO and with the U.K. supporting Turkish membership in the EU, the two countries seem to have several commonalities which bring them closer to each other, despite the fact they lie in the most eastern and the most western ends of Europe. For example, public opinion in both countries considers their own forthcoming elections to be "critical" and "of historic importance." Yet, it is not the only common characteristic between the two elections. There are many other similarities and observers forecast that a "hung parliament" is probable in both countries as well. Forecasts may look similar, and perhaps even the results may look alike, but they will bring different outcomes.

The main contenders in U.K. politics in the forthcoming elections are the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrat Party (LibDem), the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The first two, the main political actors of British politics, seem to have similar support - namely some 33-35% of the votes. Who will get most of the votes and become the first party will be hard to guess until the vote is cast. The UKIP may get some 13% and the LibDem some 8%. The surprise effect comes from the SNP and their overwhelming ascent in Scotland, which will probably affect politics in Westminster for the next five years to come after the elections. They seem to have wiped away the traditional strength of the Labour Party in Scotland, a development which perhaps has a dear cost to the Labour Party, with the result of depriving them from winning the elections. The UKIP, on the other hand, is a crucial...