Greece, other EU strugglers emerge winners from carbon reforms, data shows

By Susanna Twidale & Barbara Lewis

Europe's poorest nations, including heavily indebted Greece, emerge the main winners from a deal to reform the world's biggest carbon market that will raise billions for EU governments, data from Thomson Reuters Point Carbon shows.

The European Union on Tuesday reached a preliminary accord to launch on Jan. 1, 2019, a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to remove some of the hundreds of millions of carbon allowances that have depressed the EU Emissions Trading System.

The date is two years earlier than originally proposed and is expected to more than double carbon prices from their current level before the end of the decade, boosting the revenues countries will receive for selling permits.

The negotiations also secured a solidarity fund to soften the impact on weaker economies as more costly carbon allowances drive energy bills higher.

Point Carbon found the overall effect of the changes would be to generate 151 billion euros ($171 billion) for the 28 EU nations from auctioning carbon permits between 2015 and 2025, 89 percent more than they would have received with no reform.

The highest absolute earnings would be for Germany, followed by Britain, which gain 32 billion euros and 16.8 billion euros respectively versus 16.8 billion euros and 8.8 billion euros without the MSR.

Germany and Britain were two of the strongest advocates of early reform as they seek to promote low- and zero-carbon energy.

Coal-reliant Poland, which led opposition, gains 15.7 billion euros compared with 8.6 billion euros without the change.

The analysts said the absolute gains reflected a nation's economic size.

More telling are the percentage gains and in these terms, Portugal, followed by...