What if polls prove to be wrong in Turkey too?

The victory of Prime Minister David Cameron?s Conservative Party in the U.K. elections was a shock not only to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but to polling companies as well.

Up until the last day, even the last hour of the elections, they had estimated a neck-and-neck race between Labour and the Tories, placing the Scottish National Party (SNP) in a kingmaker position. The Hürriyet Daily News? story based on agency reports also told us that too.

This is the second high-profile polling mistake in a row. The polling companies in the Israeli elections in March also proved badly wrong about the results. Their forecasts had focused on the rise of the newly founded Zionist Union, rather than a new victory by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu?s Likud.

Analyzing the situation, Alberto Nardelli of The Guardian focused on three possibilities in his May 8 article, ?How did the polls get it so wrong?? Either people were simply lying to pollsters, or they changed their minds dramatically literally when they got into the polling stations, or there is something old and wrong in the methodology of the polling companies.

Perhaps I can add one more factor. Is it possible that polling companies have started to see themselves as kingmakers who can manipulate the public opinion and the vote?

Polling companies are working hard nowadays in Turkey to make their final estimates, as there is less than a month left to the June 7 parliamentary elections. Their job is much more difficult than in previous elections for three main reasons. 

It is not only the winning party and its vote percentage that they have to forecast. There is already general acceptance that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) will come first,...