Two illusions about Turkish coalition talks

The official phase of the coalition talks to form a new Turkish government after the June 7 election is expected to start next week.

As President Tayyip Erdo?an has said that he would give Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu the mandate to find a partner for the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) after parliament elects its speaker, the two processes are de facto linked, despite remarks from Republican People?s Party (CHP) head Kemal K?l?çdaro?lu on June 24.

After announcing that he had asked Deniz Baykal, his predecessor, to be the CHP candidate for the Speaker of Parliament position, K?l?çdaro?lu denied that the two processes were related. 

This did not please everybody in the CHP for a few reasons. The first was Baykal?s meeting with Erdo?an, despite the CHP?s refusal to take Erdo?an as a political counterpart due to president?s constitutionally non-partisan status. Many party members think this was a fait accompli by Baykal to put himself forward, despite the fact he has repeatedly said he spoke to K?l?çdaro?lu on the phone in advance. Secondly, some CHP members think Baykal weakens the hand of the CHP in possible coalition talks with the AK Parti, as his potential parliament speaker position would be seen as a gain for the party.

If Baykal wins, this would indeed represent a gain for the CHP. Not only because the speaker acts as a substitute to the president in the latter?s absence, but also because usually it is the party with the largest group in parliament (in this case the AK Parti) that elects the speaker, as in the fourth and final round only a simple majority is needed to win.

There is speculation that the AK Parti could give the position to the CHP as a bargaining chip used to counter K?l?çdaro?lu?s possible...