Money can be made from betting on the drachma, Grexit… Armageddon!
Gamblers can typically ‘smell’ the odds of something happening and there’s a theory that betting markets offer a better guide to predicting the non-sporting world better than opinion polls and the mainstream media. Greece, however, is splitting pundits as much as it is splitting citizens of Europe with divisive responses to the question: “Will Greece be forced to leave the Euro?”
More than 250,000 pounds has been poured into Betfair’s Greek Eurozone 2015 Exit? market which steadily gave a Eurozone exit a 58% chance of exit compared to 42% for Yes though the latter did briefly hit 56% on Sunday after the stalemate between Greece and the Euro Central Bank.
Bets, however, are not only on whether there will be a Grexit in 2015 but are also focused on a default, whether Greece will adopt a new currency by 2017, if there will be snap elections in Greece and if Yanis Varoufakis will remain Finance Minister of Greece.
Paddy Power asks: “Will Yanis Varoufakis be Finance Minister on Dec 31st 2015″. Ever six euros offered by the gambler earn them 0.833 cents in the case of staying.
In another Paddy Power poll there are bets taken as to whether Greece will continue to use the euro by the end of 2017 and huge gains to be made if Greece officially defaults in 2015. More recently, gamblers are taking an interest in new polls that are focused on elections in Greece by the end of the year.
William Hill reduced the gains to be had from Greece remaining in the eurozone from 1/8 to 1/6 following the breakdown in talks. The British bookie has even stopped accepting betts on a Grexit with the 1 to 3 hancel slowly being reduced, whereas there was a 1 in 5 chance Greece would stay in the euro and a 10 to 3 chance it would exit.
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