Bosniak Parties Weigh Impact of Radoncic Arrest

Bosnia's ruling coalition is likely to survive the political turmoil created in recent weeks by the arrest of the politician and businessman Fahrudin Radoncic, experts say.

However, his future trial may well alter relations between the two main Bosniak parties - Radoncic's own party, the Alliance for a Better Future, SBBBiH, and the main Bosniak party, the Party of Democratic Action, SDA, they add.

"The ruling coalition and the agreement between the SBBBiH and SDA is still solid and should last until the next elections [in 2018]", Ivana Maric, a political analyst from Sarajevo, told BIRN on Thursday.

"Media attention in Bosnia on Radoncic's arrest has already diminished," Maric noted.

However, Maric added that the two Bosniak parties will be more affected if Radoncic is found guilty and sent to prison.

"If Radoncic is declared guilty, we can expect his party to melt, since he is the only relevant figure in it. The SBBBiH is basically the party of one person," Maric claimed. In that case "representatives from the SBBBiH could easily decide to merge into the SDA".

Radoncic was arrested on January 25, accused of having obstructed the work of the judiciary. He was released on Wednesday after the State Court rejected the State Prosecution's request to extend his 30 days of detention for another month. Currently, he is under house arrest.

The arrest immediately sparked doubts about the stability of the ruling coalition in which the SBBBiH is a partner both at national level and in the Federation entity.

The SBBBiH currently holds four ministerial positions in the Federation and one in the Council of Ministers, the state government.

"The provocation caused by my arrest has not destabilised a strong and necessary...