Turkey-Russia: New 'frenemies?'

I don't know who invented the term "frenemy" to refer to the implicit alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran in the wake of the U.S.-Iran deal, but it seems well-suited to describing the new Russia-Turkey friendship as well. Nevertheless, Russia-Turkey relations have gone far beyond an unspoken convergence of interests; on the contrary, both parties are eager to advertise and celebrate their companionship. It is not clear, however, if the interests of the two countries really converge in Syria and elsewhere.

After all, it is Turkey which neared the Russian position in Syria before and especially after last week's assassination of Russia's ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov. It happened less than a day before a Russia-Iran-Turkey summit in Moscow and stripped Turkey of any chance of raising any objection to the Russian-Iranian position in Syria in general and the terms of the evacuation of Aleppo in particular. The declaration after the summit lays bare this fact as it clearly denounces the politics of regime change in Syria. Finally, it was also a declaration of the failure of Turkey's Syria policy, which was shaped by the determination for regime change. Turkey's only gain seems to ensure the unity of Syria as an "Arab Republic" with no mention of Kurdish autonomy. Nonetheless, Russia's position toward the future of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria is still rather ambiguous and may turn out to be a tool for Russia to keep Turkey in tune with Russian policy.

As for the prospects of the Turkey-Russia alliance in general, it may prove more complicated and less fruitful than the expectations of the governing party. In fact, any political alliance is doomed leave such high expectations unfulfilled, since the government party has already...