CHP outflanks AKP in first stage of referendum campaign

The first date signaled as the launch of the "yes" campaign of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) for the April 16 referendum was Feb. 7. President Tayyip Erdoğan had asked the AK Parti to get ready for that date, the end of parliament's winter recess.

But a week after that date had passed, Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım announced on Feb. 14 during his address to the AK Parti parliamentary group that the campaign would be launched on Feb. 25.

Why this delay? Could it be related to the opinion polls on the referendum that have apparently satisfied neither Erdoğan nor Yıldırım? Could it be to prevent early fatigue in the "yes" camp amid obvious cracks in the National Movement Party (MHP), which supports Erdoğan's project to shift Turkey to an executive presidential system?

The political backstage in Ankara tells a different story.

Sources suggest there are two key points behind this delay.

The first is tactical. The AK Parti had calculated that the social democratic main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) would appeal to the Constitutional Court to annul parliament's decision to go to a referendum, based on claims of irregularity during the voting process. The AK Parti had guessed that the court would reject it after one week at most, which would ultimately provide more political material for the "yes" campaign.

PM Yıldırım said in a speech on Feb. 14 that the CHP was "afraid of the people's will," which is why it wanted to hide behind the Constitutional Court.

But just an hour later, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said in an address to his parliamentary group that they would not apply to the court, trusting instead in the common sense of the people to vote "no" to a shift that...