Turkey's dance

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar could be seen as a return to the bad old Sunni alliance against Iran in the region. For the time being, it is not clear if the move is part of a Turkish governmental attempt to influence the new U.S. administration, or a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's new Mideast policy. Although Trump's new Mideast policy is far from clarity and coherence, his verbal attack on Iran must have encouraged the anti-Iran alliance in the region. Besides, Turkey's governing circles may be thinking that it is also a chance to balance Russia's growing power in Syria and its recent pro-Kurdish stance.  

Nevertheless, it is rather difficult for Turkey's rulers to handle good relations with Russia on one hand and pursue an anti-Iran policy on the other. Trump's Russia policy might still be quite opaque, but Turkey may find itself in a terrible quagmire in all circumstances. If Trump switches to confrontational politics toward Russia, Turkey will be in a difficult position in having to choose sides; if not, it will mean that the U.S. and Russia will need to find common ground on Iran and its regional allies. In the latter case, the anti-Iran coalition may be seriously undermined and Turkey may find a little space to maneuver. Finally, regardless of the direction of U.S.-Russia relations, both parties expect Turkey to fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) more than anyone else, while both parties' attitude toward the role of the Kurds largely converges despite Turkey's efforts to change their views.

Another major problem with "the anti-Iran coalition" is its tacit alliance with Israel, or rather, with its current government. Trump may be thinking that a new policy of...