"Old, New, Orthodox" - CIA predicts a fragmented Europe

Namely, the CIA sees the European continent as quite different to what it is today in the near future - divided in three parts: "new," "old," and "(Christian) Orthodox" - and Serbia would be a part of the third.

At the same time, Stratfor has also predicted big changes - the strengthening of Poland and Romania through a strategic partnership with the US, the rise of Turkey as a regional power, and a decline in Germany's influence.

According to the CIA, by 2020, there will be a western bloc, "Old Europe," made up of Germany, France, Austria, UK, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Sweden, Norway, Finland; "New Europe" would include Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Croatia - and these, mostly former Warsaw Psct countries, would now form America's main military bastion in Europe.

A decade ago, the CIA also predicted that Europe would face a great crisis, making it difficult for the Balkan states to join the EU. For that reason, the prediction even at the time was that Serbia, along with Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Romania would form the "Orthodox Group" - that would also include Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania, as well as Kosovo, which is treated as a separate entity.

Meanwhile in the "Catholic Zone" Eastern European countries would be under US patronage, the CIA predicted.

The turmoil that began in 2008, since the EU has been in trouble, shook the unity of the organization - and Stratfor predicted that if it survived, the EU would find it difficult to restore that unity, and would function in a more limited and fragmented manner. "In the next decade, Europe will be defined by the rise of national states as the driving force on the continent. The number of national...