Bulgaria’s Economic to decline by 5% in 2020

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) report, entitled "Regional Economic Prospects", says that if a short-term effect of the COVID-19 epidemic is accepted, economies are expected to shrink by an average of 3.5% worldwide this year, compared to 4.8% in 2021, noting that these forecasts are uncertain due to uncertainty with the development of the crisis.

The Bulgarian economic output is projected to decline by 5.0% of GDP as a result of the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2021. For comparison, in 2018 the country's GDP growth was 3.1%, and in 2019 - 3.4%. The decline will be largely due to the impact on tourism, which has had a detrimental effect on some other countries as well.

According to EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik, greater co-operation and economic flexibility are key to overcoming the global crisis.

"The crisis is a big blow and getting out of it will be just as much of a challenge. Now is not the time for economic nationalism and protectionism, but the time to build a better future through an international commitment to free trade, climate change mitigation and economic co-operation," Javorcik said.

The report predicts that the crisis will have a moderate impact on the economy in the long run, with economic growth expected to continue until the end of the third quarter of the year, but emphasizes that significant long-term economic, political and social effects of the pandemic are still possible.

If isolation measures in practice remain in place much longer than expected, the recession could be much greater, so the level of economic growth from 2019 would not be possible to be reached in the next few years, the...