Bulgarian Professor: We are on the Edge with the Third Wave

"One of the parameters we monitor shows when the spread of the infection goes from cluster to diffuse. The critical areas are Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas. In all these areas, the situation is not good and the situation is getting worse. " This was stated on NOVA by the mathematician and member of the National Operational Staff Prof. Nikolay Vitanov. He explained that the critical value of the basic reproductive number is 1.3. The reproductive number shows how many people are infected by a coronavirus carrier. "In two weeks with such values ​​- everything thunders. Yesterday we were with this value, and today the number is 1.24 ", Prof. Vitanov was categorical. According to him, 13 districts are expected to face serious problems with the infection next week. These are: Burgas, Veliko Tarnovo, Vratsa, Sofia-city, Lovech, Montana, Pazardzhik, Pleven, Silistra, Sofia-region, Smolyan, Haskovo and Shumen. The situation in Gabrovo, Razgrad and Ruse will deteriorate rapidly according to mathematics. "The difference in areas depends on the development of the epidemic. The new strain is rampant in Kyustendil and the situation is very bad, "said the specialist. "When the situation gets bad and we approach 5,000 cases on a daily basis, it becomes scary. It depends on our behavior and the vaccination campaign. This time we have a tool we can use to help ourselves. 50 thousand vaccinated people are pushing the wave down by 1% ", explained Prof. Vitanov. He added that if the diffuse spread of the virus continues, it is possible to take global action. After the vaccination of 2 million people, there will be a serious improvement in the situation, the mathematician explained.