With Low Population Density Bulgaria Can Afford Lenient Anti-Epidemic Measures - Mathematician

The 10-day lockdown will for sure have an effect, says lecturer at the Department of Informatics of the New Bulgarian University Lachezar Tomov. There will be a visible drop in the number of new Covid-19 cases, but it will not be enough, he forecast on Before All radio talk show.

"Over these ten days, the morbidity rate may plummet by 30% if the lockdown is properly implemented. /.../ In 30 days there will be at least a double drop, down to 1,000 cases per day."

He said the fact that high school students were sent back home for online learning already produced good effect and the upward morbidity trend has been reversed."

"During the first week the speed of infection spread slows down, and another week of strict measures is needed to reach lower morbidity level," Tomov explained.

According to Tomov, the government "introduces unpopular measures bit by bit" to make it easier for the people to put up with the lockdown. He pointed out that there are suitable conditions in Bulgaria to have more liberal measures because the population is quite dispersed, there are regions where there is no traffic or traffic between regions is very scarce.

Tomov is optimistic that vaccination campaign in Bulgaria will be completed by the end of the year.

If two million people are vaccinated in our country by June, then, combined with at least two million who have had the virus combined and warm summer weather, could make us forget about the epidemic by September, the mathematician stressed.

Currently, 10 people infect an average of 13 others, according to his calculations.

If the British version is widespread enough and there is no room for more growth, we will soon see a rapid decline in morbidity, Lachezar Tomov pointed out.

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