Turkey and Russia have different interests in the South Caucasus: Op-ed

Since the end of the Second Karabakh War and the signing of a ceasefire agreement on Nov. 9, 2020, Turkey and Russia have co-existed in Azerbaijan in a joint monitoring center and Russian "peacekeeping" forces in northern Karabakh. This is a major compromise by Russia which has since 1991 always viewed the former Soviet space as its exclusive sphere of influence. Russia has been especially sensitive at NATO and the EU enlarging into this area; for example, by opposing Ukraine and Georgia joining these organizations.

Turkey and Russia's unusual co-existence in Azerbaijan goes against the tide of history. The Ottoman and Russian Empires fought 12 wars between the 16th and 20th centuries. Turkey is a NATO member, has its second-largest army and hosts two U.S. military bases. The USSR and post-Soviet Russia have always seen NATO as a threat to their national security.

Although Turkish and Russian interests came together at the end of last year's war there are four factors which point to the relationship being unstable.

The first is precedent. Turkey and Russia have been on different sides in the Syrian and Libyan civil wars. In the Syrian Armageddon, Russia is backing the oppressor of Sunni Muslims, the Bashar al-Assad regime, and their brutal tactics have forced millions to flee into Turkey and Europe. In Libya, Russia supported renegade Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey supports the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord.

The second is territorial integrity and separatism. Turkey is a strong supporter of the territorial integrity of states and suspicious of countries supporting separatism. Turkey has therefore condemned the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and always supported the restoration of Azerbaijani...