Ukraine-Russia: There Goes the Neighbourhood

That chimes with the US position. "President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February," White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said on Thursday.

While Muzyka is reluctant to anticipate what Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning in Ukraine, he argues that Russia's military capabilities and manpower would allow it to occupy a sizeable chunk of Ukraine, even as far as the Dnieper river which runs through the middle of the country.

The ongoing build-up of military equipment on Russia's direct borders with Ukraine and in Belarus involves a manifold increase in the existing capacities that had already been permanently stationed by the Russians. For example, while Russia used to keep two combined arms armies (those which integrate different types of combat, for example infantry and armour) in the proximity of Ukraine, now it has moved elements of 10 out of its total of 11 such armies.

When it comes to battalion tactical groups (an operationally flexible formation made up of a battalion and attached artillery, air defence, engineering and logistical support units), those have tripled in number from 24 to at least 66, Muzyka counts, pointing out that this is probably an underestimate, as he cannot confirm the locations of all of those newly deployed. Those are located on a radius of 250 kilometres from Ukraine's borders, both in Russia and in nearby Belarus.

Crucially, Russia has been moving towards the border very high-end military equipment, for example the S-300V anti-ballistic missile system towards Belarus from central Russia. The Russians are also bringing equipment that allows them to build bridges across rivers.

"If Russia was preparing for an...