2023 Elections in Bulgaria: Counting by Hand, Electoral Apathy and Grim Cabinet Prospects

For the fifth time in two years, Bulgarians are called to the polling stations to vote for a National Assembly, which, after a series of unsuccessful attempts, will finally produce a regular government and put an end to the political crisis in the country.

Voting today (April 2) will be again under changed rules. Most significant among them are the return to widespread use of paper ballots and manual vote counting, which observers say will complicate vote counting as a whole and increase the chance of (un)intentional errors. Less than half of the eligible voters are expected to reach the polls again.

According to sociological forecasts, the outcome of the elections will depend on the people who, in the last hours before and on the day of the vote, will decide whether and how to vote. According to the agency's assessment, those who are hesitating whether to go to the polls at all are about 13 percent, and those who are ready to go, but without a clear opinion of whom to support, are about or a little over 15 percent.

Surveys show that the difference between the two coalitions with the greatest chances for the first place - "We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria" and GERB-SDS, is less than one percentage point. The situation is similar with the parties that are fighting for the third position - DPS and "Vazrazhdane". The minimal differences that are within the statistical error and the considerable number of wavers are a prerequisite for possible reversals at any moment. Added to this is the unknown of abroad voting, which surveys of electoral attitudes cannot capture.

The new parliament is set to have five or six groups, and attempts to form a government will again be difficult, as a combination of more than two formations will...