Bulgaria’s Ministry of Finance predicts a Slowdown in Economic Growth to 1.8% this year

The Bulgarian economy will slow its growth to 1.8 percent this year, according to the spring macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance.

Due to the Russian war against Ukraine, an alternative scenario has also been developed, according to which the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices may deviate downwards by between 0.5 percentage points.

After this year the economy will grow by less than 2 percent, by 2026 the gross domestic product will grow by three percent or more, the Ministry of Finance predicts in its base scenario.

According to it, the average annual inflation this year will be 8.7%, but then it will slow down to 3.8, 2.8, 2.2 percent respectively over the years. At the end of this year, inflation will decrease to 5.6%.

"To the greatest extent, the delay will be due to a significant reduction in the contributions of the groups of food and energy goods, and the latter are expected to have even a slight drop in prices at the end of the year", the ministry also predicts.

Unemployment will fall and employment will grow along with the economy, according to the published forecast.

In the alternative worst-case scenario, deviations are negligible.

In April, the ministry is expected to present a draft budget for the current year, as the country is currently operating in conditions of the so-called extension law.

The spring macroeconomic forecast can be considered the basis on which experts from the Ministry of Finance work to develop the most important financial law.