Bulgaria Braces for Rightward Shift in Upcoming EP Elections

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) projects a notable shift to the right in the 2024 European Parliamentary (EP) elections, foretelling the rise of Euroskeptic parties, potentially securing significant positions in Bulgaria. The forecast suggests a surge in right-leaning movements across several countries. According to ECFR, Bulgaria is expected to welcome three newcomers to the EP: Vazrazhdane (Revival), There Is Such a People (TISP) and the Levitsata (the Left).

On a broader European scale, ECFR predicts that nearly half of the EP seats will be held by MEPs outside the centrist coalition, and a potential populist right coalition could emerge with a majority, marking a considerable shift in European policies. This shift may impact foreign policy decisions, particularly in areas like climate change, where the new majority might resist ambitious EU actions.

The forecast for Bulgaria indicates that of the 17 expected MEPs, five may align with the European People's Party (EPP), three with the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), three with the Identity and Democracy group (ID), five with Renew Europe (RE), and one with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ERC).

The political landscape in Bulgaria has witnessed significant instability with five parliamentary elections since 2021. The rapid rise of anti-system votes, particularly in favor of the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival (Vazrazhdane), has been notable. Winning 14% of the vote in the last election in 2023, Revival became the third-largest party. If the forecast holds, with three seats in the EP, Revival would gain institutional legitimacy, posing challenges for mainstream parties grappling with a loss of public trust.