Tight Race for Second Place in Bulgaria's Upcoming Elections

According to the latest data from "Trend" agency, six political formations from the previous parliament are expected to secure seats in Bulgaria's next National Assembly, but there is no clear outcome for second, third, and fourth places. GERB leads with 26.5% of voters, while "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) at 15.3%, "Revival" at 15.1%, and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) at 14.9% are in close contention for second place. The differences among these parties are within the statistical error margin, making the final order uncertain.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) holds the fifth position with 8.5% of the vote, followed by "There is Such a People" (TISP) with 5.9% of likely voters. This survey, conducted by Trend and commissioned by "Nova Broadcasting Group" and "24 Chasa," was carried out from May 29 to June 4, 2024. It involved 1007 face-to-face interviews with adults aged 18 and over, and has a maximum stochastic error of ± 3.1%.

"Solidary Bulgaria" is close to the parliamentary threshold with 3.4%, while "Blue Bulgaria" has 2.1% voter support. Other parties, including VMRO (1.4%), "Levitsata" (1.3%), and "Bulgarian Rise" (1.1%), are trailing behind. The "I do not support anyone" option gathered 4.4%, but these votes do not contribute to the seat distribution.

Trend notes that there is not much difference between support for parties in parliamentary elections and those for the European Parliament. However, due to the tight race among the second, third, and fourth positions, the final arrangement could vary between the two elections. WCC-DB is expected to perform slightly better in the European elections, while BSP might see a minor decline.