Critical Elections in France: One in three voters expected to vote Le Pen

Polling stations opened in France this morning, and everyone is wondering how high the percentages for the Le Pen will be and how significant the blow will be for Emmanuel Macron. The French President, who returned Friday afternoon from the EU Summit in Brussels on the presidential Falcon 8X he uses for short trips, will certainly be contemplating how diminished his international power and influence will be at the next meeting with his counterparts.

Attempting to mitigate the initial shock, he gambled on early parliamentary elections. He hoped to reverse the situation created by the results of the European elections, which had a resounding impact across Europe and even reached Washington and Beijing. However, the short span of just 20 days that followed did not work in favor of the political risk he took.

Many quickly spoke of a masterstroke, which his team had been considering for some time as plan B in anticipation of a broad defeat in the European elections, believing it would turn the game in his favor. Judging by the poll results, this strategy, if it existed, has collapsed.

The slogan “no to extremes” and the president’s warnings of impending civil war seem to have fallen flat. Some jokes even circulated when François Hollande, Macron’s predecessor, appeared as a candidate, a man Macron had served as Minister of Economy before deciding to go his own way and run for the Élysée Palace, forcing Hollande into early retirement. Many here speak of the twists of history and the cold dish of revenge. Conversely, the extremes gained ground in the polls, while the centrist space, though united, found itself a suffocating minority squeezed between the far-right and the leftist front.

Dégage: Get Out

Macron has been making tactical errors, continuing to ignore the transformation of Marine Le Pen and her party, as well as the strong dynamic and tradition of the French Left. More crucially, his own star seems to be waning. The narrative of the visionary reformer that elevated him to the presidency in 2017 was tested and severely wounded by the prolonged and bloody clashes with the “yellow vests,” the farmers’ tractors, the fearful and insecure French citizens due to the immigration surge and terrorist threats, with the final straw being his announcements about French military involvement in Ukraine. According to “The Economist,” the French are driven by a rebellious spirit, a dégagiste spirit (dégage in French means get out), the outcome of which no one can predict.

Thus, despite genuine concerns about the uncharted waters France may enter from July 7 onward – which many French people perceive more as scaremongering than a real threat – Macron risks becoming the second exception, after Jacques Chirac in 1997, to the tradition of French presidents who consolidate their dominance when they dissolve the National Assembly.

The questions are harsh and anxiety-inducing. The next NATO Summit is just 10 days away, right after the second round of the French elections. This is followed by the 235th anniversary of the French Revolution with a grand parade on the Champs-Élysées, and shortly after, the opening of the Olympic Games. With which prime minister beside or behind him will Macron find himself?

Unknown Factor: Abstention

The world’s attention has been focused on France for weeks. Speculations about the next day’s political landscape in the country are rampant. What pollsters couldn’t accurately answer until the last moment is whether the victory momentum of the National Rally will turn into a triumph tonight and a majority in the Assembly ahead of next Sunday’s second round. Le Pen’s party’s victory is undisputed. But will it be enough?

An unpredictable factor here is abstention. Analysts suggest that the French may choose to send a message of dissatisfaction by abstaining up to 50% in the European elections but revert to their “factory settings” when thinking and voting nationally, preventing the right from rising to power. But is this true? Or has the National Rally’s momentum become unstoppable with the political techniques of the second round?

A wave of change or a wall of deterrence? What will prevail tonight, and more importantly, next Sunday? The French, as Macron and the Left hope, are still frightened by the idea of the former National Front (Front National – FN), now the National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN), rising to power.

However, in all previous elections, they have steadily strengthened Le Pen and her associates. From 13.2% in the 2017 parliamentary elections to 18.7% in 2022, with recent polls projecting them to 34%-35.5%. In the European elections, they surged from 23.3% in 2019 to 31.4% recently. And in the presidential elections, with Marine Le Pen herself leading, they reached the second round in 2017 and 2022, garnering 34% and 42% respectively. They are now not far from 50%.

Macron-Left Alliance?

Pollsters estimate that higher voter turnout means diminished hopes for Le Pen’s chosen candidate, Jordan Bardella, to seize the prime ministerial scepter. However, the ballot box will ultimately have the final say. According to “Le Monde,” estimates put voter turnout between 60% and 65%, significantly higher than in 2022.

The situation is quite complex due to the peculiar French electoral system. This system leads to intense clashes between the first and second rounds, where alliances will be necessary. The country is divided into 577 single-member constituencies, and in each of these, a candidate needs 50% of the vote to be elected in the first round. Otherwise, the top two candidates, as well as those who garner more than 12.5% of registered voters in the constituency, advance to the second round.

Thus, with a 50% abstention rate, few constituencies are expected to have “clear-cut” results, as a third party will likely be involved in the second round. The numbers don’t add up. Therefore, a head-to-head between the top two candidates is inevitable. But with reduced abstention, at 40% or 35%, there will be more constituencies where more than two candidates will compete in the second round.

Since the RN will be the leading party, for it not to win the seat with a relative majority, the third party will have to withdraw in favor of the second party after the first round. This is already being widely discussed both within Macron’s camp and the leftist alliance. In the direct contests between Le Pen’s party and candidates from Macron’s camp or the Left in 2022, the scale tipped in favor of the RN. However, the Left was divided then. In any case, a safe prediction is impossible.

Beyond alliances, many believe the leftist front will need to have settled on a prime ministerial candidate for the second Sunday, facing Bardella and Gabriel Attal. This would address a pending issue that, if left to post-election negotiations, discourages voters. Will it be the socialist Raphaël Glucksmann, who successfully led the European election list, or someone else? That remains to be seen…

Based on the polls, Le Pen and Bardella’s RN, along with their allies, the Republicans of Éric Ciotti (LR – Ciotti), are expected to approach 260-280 seats in the new National Assembly, up from just 88 in the outgoing one.The New People’s Front (NFP) of the Left, with 29% today, is expected to secure around 170-180 seats (up from 151), and Macron’s faction (Ensemble) is expected to have approximately 100 seats (down from 249) with about 20% of the vote tonight. Smaller parties are expected to shrink. An absolute majority requires 289 seats out of a total of 577. However, these predictions are highly tentative due to the peculiarities of the electoral system, which has often led to significant forecasting errors in the past.

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