Israel: Netanyahu’s party boosts its ratings after Nasrallah’s assassination, according to poll

Prime Minister Beniamin Netanyahu would win the most seats in the Knesset (Israeli parliament) if elections were held in Israel today, but would not be able to maintain the existing governing coalition, according to a Channel 12 poll published yesterday.

While Likud wins 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the four largest parties below are the ones currently in opposition:

Benny Ganch’s centrist National Unity party 21 seats, Yesh Atid’s centrist Yair Lapid, 15 seats, Avigdor Lieberman’s ultra-nationalist Israel Beitenu party 14, and Yair Golan’s Democrats – a merger of the Labor and Meretz parties – 11 seats, according to the poll.

The ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties win 10 and 8 seats respectively, followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit securing 6 seats – a drop from the 9 seats recorded in a Channel 12 poll 10 days ago.

The Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al follow, taking 5 seats each.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and the Arab nationalist Balad party do not exceed the 3.25% threshold.

The parliamentary elections in Israel are held under the system of simple proportional representation and the threshold for entry into parliament is 3.25%.

While Netanyahu’s Likud is in first place, the current governing coalition that emerged from the November 2022 elections – the most far-right in Israel’s history – does not have a parliamentary majority, adding up to just 49 seats.

As recent polls have shown, Netanyahu is considered a more suitable prime minister against Gants and Lapid, but not against Naftali Bennett.

In the poll, Netanyahu leads 38-29% over Gants and 38-27% over Lapid. Bennett leads Netanyahu 38-35%, but Netanyahu has narrowed the gap, as it was 11% in favor of Bennett in the last poll.

The poll also showed growing approval of Netanyahu’s handling of the war: 53% said he was doing a poor job and 43% said he was doing a good job. Ten days ago, in a Channel 12 poll, respondents said 60% thought the prime minister was doing a bad job and 35% said he was doing a good job.

The Midgam poll was conducted on Sunday by telephone and online with a margin of error of 4.4%.

The poll counts the aftermath of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by an Israeli raider in Beirut on Friday, but not the inclusion in Netanyahu’s government of Israeli opposition MP Gideon Saar.

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