Democracy at a crossroads: America’s 2024 election

2024 is set to be the largest election year in history, with 60 countries representing half of the world's population holding national elections. Yet, all eyes are on the US, where this November, the world's most consequential democracy will choose between two diametrically different candidates amid an ongoing economic, social and technological change. 

Given the deep social polarization, the November 5 elections will have far-reaching consequences. The outcome will be decided by an American election system that boasts unique structural features, as indicated below. 

First, the outcome of the election will depend on turnout, on who shows up to vote. In recent presidential elections, turnout has hovered around 60%, which means that more people don't vote than vote for either major candidate. Given the narrow margins in key states, turnout will be key. 

In the...