It’s Time to Ask Whether Romania Overreacted to COVID-19

By the time of publication, Romania had confirmed 803 deaths from COVID-19. Experts calculate that the death toll will reach 1,000 by the time the epidemic ends. So we can say that the death toll would have hit 3,000, had Denmark-like restrictions have not been imposed. This is to say, 2,000 more people would have died if the Romanian authorities had gone the Swedish way.

Available data say that over 90 per cent of the deceased suffered from other serious health conditions. Thus, the lockdown has extended the lives of some 1,800 people, either by days or a few years, and has saved 200 people.

Moving away from the pandemic, however, car accidents kill about 2,000 people per year in Romania and leave thousands of others with lifelong physical damages. At some periods of the year, when the roads are fullest, around 300 people die in crashes. So, closing Romanian roads to traffic for the two months of the year when congestion is highest could save 600 lives  - many more than those saved from COVID-19 by keeping people at home for the same period of two months.

Medical personnel at the Air Force Base 90. Photo: EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT

Yet, no one has come up with such a proposal. As a country, and like societies elsewhere in general, we consider that the consequences of fully stopping road traffic would be much more costly than the lives lost on our roads.

Why, then, has the same reasoning not been applied to the COVID-19 problem? Before responding to that, we should look at the losses brought about by the aggressive social distancing measures undertaken in the country.

In the first place, we have injured the economy. Contrary to the usual assumption, economy does not mean just money but also food availability, access to...