Russia braces for economic upheaval as sanctions start to bite

At his garage in the south of Moscow, 35-year-old mechanic Ivan is starting to worry.    

With billions of dollars in financial reserves and money still coming in from oil and gas exports, Russia has yet to feel the full impact of the barrage of Western sanctions imposed over its offensive in Ukraine.    

But Ivan sees storm clouds on the horizon.    

The foreign parts he needs to fix his clients' cars are getting harder to find, and prices have jumped by at least 30 percent after many brands halted exports to Russia.  

"We're running out of stock. At some point, there won't be anything left," said Ivan, who declined to give his last name.  

 "People who have foreign cars are worried, they are wondering what to do in the future," he said.    

Faced with a shortage of imported parts in factories, authorities eased safety and emission standards for locally produced cars in May.    

President Vladimir Putin has been defiant in the face of Western sanctions, insisting that the Russian economy will emerge stronger, and pointing to "chaotic measures" in Europe that have boosted global energy prices.    

Officials say the damage from sanctions will be temporary, with the economy expected to shrink by eight percent this year and then bounce back to growth in 2024.            

But Russia is heavily reliant on imports of everything from manufacturing equipment to consumer goods, and economists believe the worst effects of the sanctions are still to come.    

Officials and ordinary Russians are reporting a litany of problems, including shortages of everything from paper to medicine.     

Authorities have stopped releasing key data, making it difficult to assess the impact of sanctions.