Bulgaria's State Debt Projected to Rise Significantly Through 2028

The Bulgarian Ministry of Finance has projected a significant increase in the state debt over the period from 2025 to 2028, estimating a rise of about 1.7 times. According to the Draft Strategy for State Debt Management for this period, the ratio of state debt to GDP is expected to grow steadily, reaching 27.7% by the end of 2025, 29.3% by the end of 2026, 31.0% in 2027, and 32.8% by 2028.

The government plans to assume new debt to the tune of 16.9 billion BGN in 2025, 9.4 billion BGN in 2026, 10.4 billion BGN in 2027, and 10.9 billion BGN in 2028. This will cover both the refinancing of outstanding debt, which is estimated at 3.7 billion BGN in 2025, and the financing of the state budget deficits. The Ministry of Finance also noted that the new debt will help ensure sufficient liquidity for the fiscal reserve.

In absolute terms, the state's debt is forecasted to reach a maximum of 59.8 billion BGN by the end of 2025, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 66.6 billion BGN, 73.7 billion BGN, and 81.1 billion BGN, respectively. This increase will contribute to a rising debt-to-GDP ratio through 2028.

Despite this increase, the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the main goal of debt management remains to ensure funds for refinancing current debt, financing the budget deficit, and maintaining the liquidity of the fiscal reserve. These objectives align with the goals outlined in the draft State Budget and Regional Development Act for 2025, as well as the updated Strategic Budget Plan for 2025-2028.