Yogi Berra on the Turkish economy

I learned the basics of America?s favorite pastime only when the Red Sox were on their way to break the Bambino?s curse in 2004. Therefore, I won?t hold it against you if you have never heard of Yogi Berra.

However, the baseball great, who passed away on Sept. 22, was famous for his ?wise? sayings, some of which apply to the Turkish economy really well.

With the Central Bank of Turkey delaying much-needed rate hikes, it looks more likely that they will have to raise their policy rates substantially eventually, just like in June 2006, October 2011 and most recently, January 2014. As Berra would say, ?it?s like déjà-vu all over again.?

Bank officials would not admit that President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an would not allow them to hike rates.

Therefore, they have to force the borders of logic and economics to justify their policies, making statements that are not much less quantitatively-challenged than another famous Berra quote: ?Baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical.?

?A nickel ain?t worth a dime anymore.? With a minor change, this quote would fit the Turkish lira really well:

?A lira ain?t worth a dollar anymore.? It almost was once, though. Back in January 2008, when the lira-dollar exchange rate was below 1.15, I had a bet with a bond trader on whether it would hit 1 or 2 first. I won that bet in August 2013. If I had only increased the stakes and bet on 3 instead of 2.

?It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.? People wonder why economists, at least most of them, did not see the global crisis coming. As I have argued many times in my columns, forecasting is no easy business. And despite me winning my exchange rate bet, forecasting currencies is...