Juncker's letter, Lipponen's letter Rogers' plan and Davuto?lu's call

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has reportedly sent a letter to Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu, promising progress in the opening of five negotiation chapters between Turkey and the EU in the first quarter of 2016. The letter implies that the Greek Cypriot government will be convinced to lift its veto on the related chapters.

As detailed in Serkan Demirta?'s story in the Hürriyet Daily News on Dec. 6, the move is considered in Ankara to be an indication of goodwill by Juncker to secure an implementation agreement with Turkey about taking back Syrian refugees from EU countries during the European Council meeting on Dec. 17 in Brussels. But it seems that the letter will not be enough to convince Ankara to sign the deal without first having guarantees - sealed by a European Council decision - about the lifting of the Greek Cypriot veto and reactivating membership negotiations with Turkey. This is because of past bad experiences in Turkey's relations with the EU and its Western allies.

We have to go back a few years to understand why Juncker's important letter of intent is not enough to convince Turkey. Let's go back to October 2005 and the Ankara headquarters of the Republican People's Party (CHP). Back then, former CHP head Deniz Baykal was hosting a European Socialist Party (PES) delegation led by former Finnish and Greek prime ministers Paavo Lipponen and Yorgo Papandreu. The framework agreement on Turkey's negotiations with the EU had just been signed on Oct. 3 - but it was like a cold shower for the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) government of then-Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo?an, because a solution to the Cyprus problem was included as a precondition for Turkey's EU membership, (in addition to Greek Cypriot and...