Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to intensify efforts to expand military-patriotic education programmes for youth in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, a move analysts view as preparation for long-term conflict in Ukraine and potential future clashes with Western nations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Russia has begun deploying a significant number of North Korean soldiers in military operations, particularly in the Kursk region. Speaking during his evening address, Zelensky confirmed that these troops are being integrated into mixed combat groups exclusively for offensive maneuvers in the area.

Ukraine's military forces confirmed a strike on the Stalnoi Kon linear production dispatch station, an oil depot located in Russia's Oryol Oblast, on the night of 13-14 December. The facility, described as one of the largest oil product terminals in the area, sustained significant damage, causing a large fire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a new federal budget for 2025, marking a significant increase in defense spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The budget allocates a record 13.5 trillion rubles (119 billion euros) to national defense, representing 32.5% of total expenditures, up from 28.3% this year.

Russia has reinforced its stance against freezing the current frontline in Ukraine or reaching a compromise, insisting on Ukraine's complete surrender. Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stated that while Moscow is allegedly open to negotiations, it will not entertain a freeze of hostilities or the establishment of demilitarized zones.

On November 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new law aimed at supporting soldiers involved in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The law allows military personnel who have served in Ukraine to have debts of up to 10 million rubles (approximately 95,869 dollars) forgiven, as long as the debts are part of legal proceedings that begin before December 1, 2024.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict that Russian forces are likely to focus on capturing Ukrainian cities during the winter of 2024-2025, shifting their strategy toward urban combat. This shift is seen as a response to the Ukrainian advantage in drones and the limitations of Russia's armored vehicles.

The first clashes between North Korean forces and Ukrainian troops have reportedly occurred in the Kursk region of Russia. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed the engagement in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS on November 5, though he noted that the full deployment of North Korean forces in the region would take some more time.

The Kremlin is expected to leverage its strategic partnership with North Korea, established in June 2024, to deploy troops along its borders, signaling Russian President Vladimir Putin's intent to postpone mobilization for as long as possible.

Ukraine is working to address personnel shortages in its military, but delays and deficiencies in Western military aid are hampering its efforts to form effective combat units capable of defending critical areas and challenging broader military initiatives, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).