Business cycle

Romania's economy will advance beyond expectations this year, between 6% and 9%, according to latest estimates by international credit rating agencies, Prime Minister Florin Citu said on Tuesday. "I say that everything that was more complicated has passed, it is true that there are these adjustments, after this time, and every economy resists more or less.

The so-called "accordion lockdown" may be testing the patience and stamina of entrepreneurs, who are forced to revise their plans and operations every now and then, but at least it secures some turnover, so it is better than a complete months-long lockdown, say economists who have observed its international application in the last few months.

Economists at Greek banks expect the economy to contract between 10.5% and 15% in the first quarter of this year, with the extent of the recession to be determined by how long retail stores remain open, they say. However, the economy will stage a strong recovery in the latter half of the year, taking the sum of 2021 well into positive territory.

The pandemic aid for business envisioned by the government will last far enough to keep intact a minimum number of jobs, according to financier Emil Harsev. He told bTV that the Bulgarian economy was doing relatively well although the forecasts were quite gloomy.

Harsev gave an example of the extractive and processing industries in Bulgaria, which are less affected than expected.

The large-scale shutdown in many economic sectors, in an effort to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the sharp compression of consumer demand, along with the decline in foreign demand, make a severe contraction of the Romanian economy in Q2 very likely, read the minutes of the Central Bank's Board monetary policy meeting published on Friday.

London (CNN) - Is the damage caused by the lockdown worse than the virus itself? That's a question raised by some world leaders and commentators who claim that economic and social hardship caused by strict coronavirus restrictions places a heavier burden on society than the death rate caused by the disease.

Greece will have to restructure its production model after the coronavirus crisis has eased so that it does not depend on tourism and small and medium-sized enterprises to such a great extent, the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV) argues in its monthly bulletin.

It adds that, in that regard, the government ought to proceed with reforms and reduce energy and non-salary costs.

Greece will face an inevitable recession, a rise in unemployment, a blow to tourism and the deterioration of its property market due to the shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, with the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio rising, according to Wood Financial Group, but it is expected to fare much better than most other countries and emerge from the crisis with low borrowing costs.

Against the dramatic forecasts for fiscal figures to slump to levels reminiscent of the worst years of the debt crisis, there is also optimism within the government that things will actually turn out to be rather better.

The recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to an increase in bad loans through the rise in unemployment, according to the Center for Planning and Economic Research (KEPE).