Price stability

Annual inflation in Bulgaria accelerated in November, rising to 2.1% compared to 1.8% in October, marking a three-month high, according to data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI). On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.6%, following a 1.1% rise in October.

The Central Bank of Türkiye targets to lower its policy interest rate to 21 percent by the end of 2025, the bank's governor has said.

Speaking at the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), Fatih Karahan said on Nov. 27 projections related to the underlying trend of inflation improved, albeit slower than anticipated.

Inflation in Bulgaria experienced a significant slowdown in September, dropping to 1.2% from 2.1% in August, marking the lowest rate since March 2021, according to the National Statistical Institute (NSI). Compared to August, a deflation of 1% was recorded, following a slight rise of 0.1% in the consumer price index during the previous month.

Eyes are now on the Central Bank after inflation in September came in above expectations, while Governor Fatih Karahan has reiterated that the bank will maintain its tight stance.

Last month, consumer prices rose 2.97 percent, accelerating from 2.47 percent in August. The September print was also above the market forecast of 2.2 percent.

The decline in annual inflation continued for a fourth month in a row, easing from 51.97 percent in August to 49.38 percent in September, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) showed on Oct. 3.

This marked the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2023.

Consumer prices advanced 2.97 percent month-on-month after rising 2.47 percent in August.

The medium-term program has removed policy uncertainties and improved predictability, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz has said.

The government unveiled the updated medium-term program, which covers 2025-27 last week.

In July, inflation in Bulgaria slightly decreased to 2.4% on an annual basis, according to recent statistics from the NSI. However, compared to the previous month, the inflation index rose by 0.8%, reversing a trend of decline observed in recent months. This increase is primarily attributed to higher prices for tourist services and establishments.

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) anticipates a gradual slowdown in annual inflation during the second half of the year, as outlined in Issue 2 of its quarterly publication, "Ikonomicheski pregled" (Economic Review), available on the central bank's website.

The main policy framework will not change, and the main objectives will be preserved when the medium-term program is updated in September, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz has said.

Members of the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed confidence that inflation across the Eurozone would continue to decline, though concerns lingered following last month's rate cut amid unexpected economic setbacks, according to minutes from the ECB's latest meeting published by Reuters on Thursday.