Price stability

Inflation in Bulgaria experienced a significant slowdown in September, dropping to 1.2% from 2.1% in August, marking the lowest rate since March 2021, according to the National Statistical Institute (NSI). Compared to August, a deflation of 1% was recorded, following a slight rise of 0.1% in the consumer price index during the previous month.

Eyes are now on the Central Bank after inflation in September came in above expectations, while Governor Fatih Karahan has reiterated that the bank will maintain its tight stance.

Last month, consumer prices rose 2.97 percent, accelerating from 2.47 percent in August. The September print was also above the market forecast of 2.2 percent.

The decline in annual inflation continued for a fourth month in a row, easing from 51.97 percent in August to 49.38 percent in September, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) showed on Oct. 3.

This marked the lowest annual inflation rate since July 2023.

Consumer prices advanced 2.97 percent month-on-month after rising 2.47 percent in August.

The medium-term program has removed policy uncertainties and improved predictability, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz has said.

The government unveiled the updated medium-term program, which covers 2025-27 last week.

In July, inflation in Bulgaria slightly decreased to 2.4% on an annual basis, according to recent statistics from the NSI. However, compared to the previous month, the inflation index rose by 0.8%, reversing a trend of decline observed in recent months. This increase is primarily attributed to higher prices for tourist services and establishments.

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) anticipates a gradual slowdown in annual inflation during the second half of the year, as outlined in Issue 2 of its quarterly publication, "Ikonomicheski pregled" (Economic Review), available on the central bank's website.

The main policy framework will not change, and the main objectives will be preserved when the medium-term program is updated in September, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz has said.

Members of the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed confidence that inflation across the Eurozone would continue to decline, though concerns lingered following last month's rate cut amid unexpected economic setbacks, according to minutes from the ECB's latest meeting published by Reuters on Thursday.

Consumer prices rose by 1.64 percent monthly in June, bringing the annual inflation rate to 71.6 percent, down from 75.45 percent in May, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) have shown.

The monthly inflation was lower than the market expectation for a 2.2 percent increase in consumer prices. This was also the lowest monthly inflation recorded in 2024.

The eurozone's annual rate of inflation cooled in June in line with analysts' expectations thanks to a slowdown in food and energy price rises, official data showed .

The European Central Bank will welcome the slowdown in inflation again but the rate has remained stubbornly above the Frankfurt-based body's 2 percent target.