United States fiscal cliff

Romania's government deficit ten months into 2019 is 2.84% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a level that exceeds the estimate for the whole year, and if we do nothing in the next month and a half the deficit will exceed 4%, Finance Minister Florin Citu told AGERPRES on Thursday. "The deficit nine months into the year should have been 2.28%, but budget implementation at 9 months is 2.60%.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Romania's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook, according to a Friday release of the credit ratings and research agency. Romania's Country Ceiling was affirmed at 'BBB+', Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'F3' and Short-Term Local-Currency IDR affirmed at 'F3', according to the release.

The 2019 budget of the Single Social Security Entity (EFKA) allegedly refers to a "virtual reality," as if it were an imaginary, surplus-producing fund, and according to a senior government official the same goes for the last couple of years too.

The real budget revision will be probably carried out in November, considering the evolution of certain spending categories, the National Trade Union Bloc (BNS) said in a statement; the union organization cautions that shifting the budgetary pressure to the last two months of the year means an unjustified postponement that is dangerous for budgetary stability.

Romania's Q1 2019 government deficit is 0.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the percentage reported on Friday by Eurostat of 4.5pct of GDP quarterly is calculated against the seasonally adjusted ESA balance by reference to the quarterly GDP, according to the Romanian Ministry of Public Finance (MFP).

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Romania's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook, but warned that the budget deficit might widen to 3.4 percent of the GDP in 2019, a release of the agency informed.

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Bulgaria's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The Outlooks are Stable, quoted by Reuters. 

Turkey's central government budget balance recorded a deficit of 62.1 billion Turkish Liras ($13 billion) in the first 10 months of 2018 with a 77.7 percent yearly increase, data from the Treasury and Finance Ministry revealed on Nov. 15.

In the previous Note, we considered the relationship between nominal GDP growth, the fiscal deficit, and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We noted that the math only works if the deficit accurately and truly reflects all the pressures on the stock of debt. In this Note, we can look at this issue in more detail with past data for Greece from 1995-2017.

The Greek economy is now in a position to create surpluses and continue to have growth in 2019, European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici said on Thursday.

"Greece has implemented 450 reforms that were necessary. I believe that Greece is now in a position to create surpluses and return to growth in 2019," Moscovici told France Info radio.