Economic forecasting

Indications are growing that despite outperforming the European Union average in terms of growth and public finances, the Greek economy has not developed the momentum that would allow high performance to be achieved in the medium term. On the contrary, forecasts point to a slowdown after the Recovery and Resilience Fund's resources are exhausted.

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for Cyprus' economic growth in 2024 from 2.7% to 3.3%.

This updated prediction comes from the IMF's October World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

The government has trimmed its forecast for 2024 economic growth for a second time this year to 2.2%, as stagnation in eurozone countries hits investment and exports, the finance ministry has said.

From projected growth of 2.9% at the beginning of the year, the forecast was cut to 2.5% in April, also because of a wider EU slowdown.

The Central Bank of Cyprus has revised its 2024 forecast for gross domestic product growth to 3%, from 2.8% that was expected last March, mainly due to the upward revision of domestic demand, while it maintained its forecast for growth in the years 2025 and 2026, at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively.

The European Commission calculates Greece's growth at 2.2% in its spring forecasts for this year and 2.3% for 2025, undercutting the projection of the Greek government. Brussels' forecast was below the estimate of the recent Stability Program for 2.5% and 2.6% respectively.

The Organizations for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lifted its GDP growth forecast for the Turkish economy for 2024 from a previous 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent.

Investment activity is expected to remain strong partly due to the ongoing reconstruction following the 2023 earthquake, the Paris-based organization said in in its latest quarterly report, released on May 2.

The Greek economy remains resilient and is expected to grow at a rate of 2% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025 as rising employment and real wages and strong tourism boost consumption, according to the OECD's six-monthly report.

Despite the slowdown in new job growth, the employment rate and labour force shortages remain at historically high levels, it was pointed out.

In its latest macroeconomic forecast released on Tuesday, the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) anticipates a 2.2% increase in Bulgaria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2024, compared to 1.8% in 2023.

The Ministry of Finance in Bulgaria has revised its inflation predictions for the year 2024, slashing them by half compared to previous estimates. According to the department's spring macroeconomic forecast, the average annual inflation rate is anticipated to drop to 2.4%, with further deceleration to 2.3% by year-end.

The European Commission estimates in its winter forecasts that Greece will achieve the fourth highest growth rate in the eurozone and almost three times its average in 2024.