Let the person without sin cast the first stone

People seem to think that Turkey has changed in some basic way in the past couple of years, that the system of 80 million people somehow shifted its stance overnight to no longer be an integral part of Western civilization.

Well, that?s nonsense. Turkey remains an integral part of Western civilization, and its balance of payments is its anchor. Let me be more specific here: Turkey?s current account deficit links it to the West.

Turkey is deeply integrated with the West, and it will continue to be so, despite mounting uncertainty.

Why? First of all, Turkey?s economic link to Europe is irreplaceable. More than 50 percent of our exports go to European markets. In all our other export destinations ? the Middle East, Asia and Africa ? political factors override economic ones. That vital economic link to Europe meant that Turkey went through the acquis convergence machine. That machine is now stalling, which has led to confusion abroad. We won?t always admit it to ourselves, but I think we enjoyed the change machine of the EU. We would miss it if it ever left.

Secondly, Turkey has a declining domestic savings base and a growing current account deficit. That is a big structural problem, and unfortunately part and parcel of the Turkish psyche. Turkey has always had a current account deficit at 4 to 5 percent of its GDP. As with any debtor, we are tied to the source of our borrowed money, which traditionally has been in the West. That is how European countries wrung concessions out of the Ottoman Empire during its latter years. The building of the Ottoman Bank ? a British-French joint venture ? is still one the most impressive structures in Istanbul?s Galata district.

But the Ottoman Bank has long been obsolete, while Turkey...