Stepping back not possible

In the "Kurdish opening" of President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government something rather odd has been happening lately. At first there were some nationalist outbursts from the president and his handpicked prime minister, which were reminiscent of the 1990s. Then, all of a sudden, empty nationalist rhetoric was replaced by gunfire and reports of casualties on the "eastern front" once again.

Of course, it is difficult to provide an answer to questions about what is going on, or about what has changed to make a military option come onto the cards again. One reason might be hidden between the abundant sad reports placing the ruling AKP ahead of all other political parties in the June 7 parliamentary elections, but with a possible vote share of less than 40 percent.

People who remember that back in 2002 the AKP came to power with an "outstanding" 34 percent electoral landslide may be hoping that the ruling party might secure over 400 seats with less than 40 percent of the vote. However, that was only possible with the 2002 conditions, when only two parties managed to overcome the 10 percent national threshold. Today, according to many polls, while the AKP is in the lead with around 39 percent of the vote, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is tipped to get around 28 percent, while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is believed to be tallying some 18 percent of the vote. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) may get 10.5 percent.

In this country close to accurate public opinion polls are very rare. Still, these polls indicate a tendency in society and do forecast a blurred post-election photograph of the country. Shall we look at that blurred image now? If indeed the June 7 election ends...