Expect the unexpected from new Turkish parliament

It was expected that the new Turkish parliament would fail to elect a new speaker in the first two rounds of voting on June 30, when a two thirds majority was needed.

But all the bets are open for the two final rounds, which will take place today, July 1.

There are four party groups in parliament and all of them have nominated candidates.

The chances are low for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Peoples? Democratic Party (HDP) candidates, as both parties have only 80 seats each in the 550-seat parliament. But they could play key roles depending on the backstage bargaining.

?smet Y?lmaz, the defense minister of the outgoing Ahmet Davuto?lu government, is the candidate for the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti), which lost its ability to form a single-party government in the June 7 general election. The AK Parti still has 258 seats, and Y?lmaz still has the best chance to be elected as the speaker of parliament. This is because in the fourth round only a simple majority will be sought between the two candidates that received the highest number of votes in the third round.

That second candidate is likely to be Deniz Baykal, the former chairman of the social democratic Republican Peoples? Party (CHP), which has 132 seats. But as Baykal is currently chairing the voting sessions, (as the most senior member of parliament), he is not able to use his own vote.

That single vote is not likely to change the result. More is needed if Baykal is to be elected, which depends on support from the MHP and the HDP, or even hidden support from the AK Parti.

This last sentence may sound strange, after Davuto?lu vowed yesterday that his party would support Y?lmaz until the end. However, despite denials from all...