Iran oil exports could jump by 60 pct in a year

Iran will increase its oil exports by up to 60 percent within a year if it can agree a nuclear deal with world powers bringing an end to sanctions, a Reuters survey of analysts said on July 1.

A poll of 25 oil analysts from leading banks and brokerages forecast Iran would be able to raise crude oil output by between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of this year and boost sales abroad by up to 750,000 bpd by mid-2016. 

That would push the Islamic Republic's total crude oil output to around 3.6 million bpd, its highest for four years, and would inflate Iranian exports by around 60 percent at a time when world markets are already likely to be oversupplied. 
 
But the Reuters survey said it would take time for Tehran to raise output as nuclear inspectors verified Iran's compliance with the terms of any deal and sanctions were removed slowly. 

"It will take a few months before Iran can start to export at full blast," said Swiss energy markets analyst Olivier Jakob. 

Negotiators from Tehran are locked in talks in Vienna with officials from the United States and five other major powers to try to agree a deal to would allow development of peaceful nuclear technology in Iran. 

The deadline for the talks has been extended until July 7 to allow more time for a deal that both sides have said is close. 

The West wants guarantees that Iran is not secretly developing nuclear weapons, while Iran wants the removal of financial sanctions that have crippled its economy and reduced its oil exports by more than 1 million bpd. 

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has said Iran could restore all its lost oil to markets quickly after sanctions. 

But years of under investment mean it may...