Great Expectations

Turkish politics is an incredibly fun and surprising game for outsiders to read. You can start the day with ?Great Expectations? yet end it with ?Pride and Prejudice.? One can never fail to be amazed at how easily alliances can shift. In this, we are back to square one in the coalition talks.

As soon as the parliamentary speaker election results came out, a message blinked on my cell. It was coming from a very respected pollster who has been insisting on a possible Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coalition despite all the popular singing about a ?Grand Coalition.? 

?Early elections,? he wrote. ?This time it looks inevitable.? 

He was right because for many who have worked with the AK Party, it would be a colossal mistake to form a coalition with the Republican People?s Party (CHP), as it is not ready to take over the bureaucracy.

Turkey has been run by right-wing parties or coalitions for more than 50 years. Turkey?s experience with left or center-left coalitions have been limited to months, or at best 1.5 years. So not only for the voter, but also for the state bureaucracy, anything that has ?left? in it calls for an allergic reaction.

The MHP is no stranger to political maneuvering. The CHP?s top brass was either too fascinated by the possibility of red license plates or was too naive to think that the AK Party could actually come and make an offer as a partner. Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu still has the upper hand in the game, and may easily invite the leading opposition party as a partner. But with Davutoglu?s conditions attached, and a possible early election looming on the horizon, should the CHP take it?

Let us make certain things clear. The so-called ?Grand...