With or without al-Assad?

It?s true: There is no military solution (or quick fix) to the Syrian crisis. In order to end the bloodshed, parties have to reach a political settlement. However, what determines the bargaining power of the players at the negotiation table is their relative positions on the ground. The latest reports, which highlight Russia?s massive military buildup in Syria, should be considered from this perspective.

Based on the heavy dispatch of ammunition, tanks, logistics and military personnel to Latakia, particularly in the last couple of weeks, Russia is said to be engaged in plans to transform the Bassel al-Assad International Airport into a new airbase. Construction continues at full speed to upgrade the capacity of the airfield while prefabricated houses are being built to accommodate around a thousand military staff in the area. Sources also claim that Russia is planning to move its naval base in Tartus closer to the new airbase to boost its capacity and provide integration between the two bases.

It is no secret that Russia has been providing military equipment and humanitarian aid to the Syrian government since the outbreak of the civil war, in line with treaties signed in the 1970s between then-Syrian President Hafez al-Assad and the Soviet regime. Russia?s recent military buildup, however, which focuses on Latakia, a stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad and his family, is more of a strategic move to keep Russia?s military presence intact in the Mediterranean even if Syria dissolves into separate entities. If Moscow is really determined to put Russian boots on the ground in Syria as some suggest to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), then it could be a real game-changer, upsetting the balance of power in favor of the al-Assad...