Middle East a la française

With a new year comes new expectations about our region. This may be U.S. President Barack Obama's last year in office, but the Middle East will be higher on the agendas of other leaders. French President François Hollande tops the list.

After the Paris attacks, France is considering a longer-term plan for the area known as the Levant. Lebanon and Syria were France's dominion after World War One and French influence there is not simply cultural. The region represents social plurality, religious diversity. That is why the paths of Russia and France have crossed during operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Overthrowing Bashar al-Assad or getting rid of religious extremism is one thing, creating a multicultural society is another. For that, you need global leadership.

According to intelligence analysts who cover the area, France will gradually slow down on accepting asylum seekers from North Africa. Among its citizens of Maghreb origin, it will initiate a deep screening process and will move toward deporting those thought to have potential for extremism. Their new homeland will probably be the "new Syria." This entire scenario may sound like a long-shot political game, but for realists the French physical presence in Syria is inevitable. 

The second phase of this transformation has links to secularization and rise of other religions in the region. One analyst who closely monitors events said the following: "For the West, Islam in the Middle East has too many facades. A holy religion is read in one way but interpreted in more than 10 different ways ? Europeans think it has become a political ideology rather than a religion that shapes a moral and spiritual path for its believers."

So we should not be...