War in Ukraine: Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles, the role of Donbas and the adaptation of the Russian army

The Ukrainians are now using at regular intervals throughout the day their medium and long-range missiles hitting different Russian provinces. Since last Saturday and US approval and in now five days Ukrainian forces have targeted and launched strikes using officially 6 ATACMS (a fact confirmed by Russia’s Defense Ministry) and at least 10 Storm Shadows in two different provinces – Kursk and Krasnodar.

From the frequency with which Kiev uses these sophisticated weapons systems, two first but key conclusions emerge: first, the Ukrainians appear to have enough British Storm Shadows and ATACMS and secondly the strikes are targeted and have the ultimate goal of stopping for a start the supply of Russian troops in Donbass and Kursk.

But the problems for the Ukrainians will very hardly be covered by using only sophisticated weapons systems even if the US and Britain are joined by the French Scalp EG (the French version of the Storm Shadow) of which the Ukrainian arsenal also has a large number.

In his interview with FOX and Trey Yingst the Ukrainian President when asked what would happen if the US stopped supplying Kiev’s forces with weapons systems the answer was honest: “we will probably be defeated,” Zelensky replied, pointing to the big question for his country.

The reports from the Donbas frontlines have not been encouraging for months. The Russian forces, which clearly outnumber their opponents, even nearly three years after the invasion of Ukrainian territory, often maintain a ratio of 6 to 1 on the battlefield. With the onset of winter, Ukraine’s defense once again finds itself in a difficult position, reminiscent of the early months of the invasion.

Donbass and Donetsk have not passed entirely into Russian control but the pressure are very big. If Ukraine does not find new troops in the fields, especially experienced ones, it will not be able to cope with Russian pressure, which is increasing daily.

Another element that currently seems to be of interest is the way the Russian military chooses to move. Since the beginning of the war – now 1002 days later – and the practices of tank columns and artillery batteries tearing apart entire cities, the Russians today have adapted sufficiently to Ukrainian combat practices.

The Ukrainian forces report that the Russians have, for example, deployed their own units of drones operators, which daily strike Ukrainian defense outposts. The Ukrainians in their reports also stress that their own respective teams are increasingly being confronted when they are detected by mass hits even with heavy weapons as the damage they inflict is not so much material but temporal – and Moscow today is in a hurry…

Indicative of Ukraine’s need for more soldiers and the fact – which is not contradicted by the country’s Defense Ministry – that at the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022 each defense unit was tasked with controlling a maximum 5-kilometer zone. Today the units take on distances three and four times greater under more difficult and complex conditions.

Putin has reportedly ordered the commitment to complete the conquest of the entire Donbass valley and remove Ukrainian forces from the 1,000 square kilometers they occupy in Kursk. If these two goals are achieved by Trump’s inauguration on January 20 next year data will be in a position of strength even in a face-to-face meeting with the new US President.

Ukraine without experienced and hands, only with its long-range missiles has a chance if its gunmen still make the leap to hold back the strikes of Russian attackers. The truth is that these systems can and are expected to inflict significant hits on Moscow’s military positions. Whether these strikes will succeed in buying the time Ukraine as never before needs today remains to be seen.

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