Expert: MHP votes will split 50 /50 on presidential referendum

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is back on the radar for those who are trying to analyze Turkey's domestic politics. 

Last month, MHP head Devlet Bahçeli called on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present its constitutional amendments to change Turkey's parliamentary system to presidential one. At first, many wondered about Bahçeli's game plan, and even the AKP elites were suspicious about a possible "trap." 

In a recent interview with veteran journalist Kemal Can, a long-time observer of the MHP, I had asked him to explain Bahçeli's current strategy.

According to Can, Bahçeli has decided to take sides with the "power bloc," or the "right-wing bloc," ever since the inconclusive June 7, 2015 general election. He wanted the AKP to recognize the MHP as an (unofficial) coalition partner.

That might be understandable in terms of short-term strategy, but the question being asked these days is about the future of the MHP if Turkey does change to a presidential system. Typically, only two political parties survive under presidential systems: One in government and the other in opposition. I asked Can to explain why the MHP  would opt to support a system change that will end its very existence.

Can stressed that there could be a presidential system based on "two-and-a-half parties." He is confident that Turkey's political balances and sociology would not give way to a system based on two big major parties.
"Today, we seem to be faced by two big blogs due to the current substance of polarization in Turkey," he said, referring to the current dichotomy based on "AKP vs. anti-AKP."

"But just as the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which are both...