Europe needs a Turkey strategy

The European Parliament has recommended to the European Commission a temporary freeze of accession negotiations with Turkey. The resolution was approved overwhelmingly with 479 "yes" votes. Some say that the resolution is all bark and no bite, and that the EP is just trying to be important. I don't think so. I think it's indicative of long-standing strategic blindness in Brussels, and it will have serious consequences.

The decision itself of course, is not binding and does not contain anything that would substantially hurt Turkey at this stage. As the ever-insightful Gerald Knaus noted, the resolution is a freeze to a process that wasn't moving forward anyways. "In the last six years, on average, one chapter has been opened every two years. Hence saying that no chapter will be opened in the next year or two is not a very strong statement." So why should we care? 

The resolution effectively sets the tone for the December summit and, in this way, serves its purpose. I gather that Martin Schultz, the president of the EP, has made Turkey into something of a hot potato for the December summit. A hot potato especially in the hands of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is trying to find a solution to the migration issue. It is no secret that Martin Schultz is thinking of returning to German politics as a potential challenger to a much-weakened, but still formidable Chancellor in 2017. One way of doing that would be to portray Merkel as a collaborator to the "reviled Turkish dictator," while presenting himself as the "valiant defender of European values" in the EP. Considering how important the migration issue was in Brexit, and how critical it seems to be in France these days, his strategy could play out rather well with German voters.

Does this mean...