The Kurdish dilemma

It seems that Kurdish-origin voters are going to play an important role in Turkey's upcoming referendum for a shift to an executive presidential system, while the Kurdish problem is also gaining importance in efforts to find a lasting peace in Syria. The latter concerns not only Turkey's internal balances but also the overall political equation in the Middle East.

At the regional level, a major byproduct of the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq in 2003 was the development of an autonomous Kurdish region in the north, bordering both Turkey and Iran. Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was established by the traditionalist Masoud Barzani-led Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), while the modernist Kurdistan Patriotic Union (PUK) leader Jalal Talabani was made president of Iraq. That was considered one consequence of the Iraqi Kurdish parties' collaboration with the U.S.-led occupation forces after the Turkish Parliament rejected taking part in it.

The question today is whether the Syrian civil war and another American intervention produce another Kurdish autonomous region, next to the one Iraq and also bordering Turkey. If such a region does emerge it would be governed by a different Kurdish party, the Syria-based Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is the Syrian sister of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has waged an armed campaign against Turkey since 1984, during which more than 40,000 people have been killed with the aim of forming a "united Kurdistan" from territories carved out of four neighboring states: Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. 

One major dissimilarity between the cases of Iraq and Syria is that the PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S. Another dissimilarity is that the Iraqi constitution...