Is Turkey ready to live with an independent Kurdistan?

If there is no last-minute backtrack, the Iraqi Kurds will vote in a referendum on independence in two weeks. It is a move that will drastically shake all regional balances in the already unstable Middle East.

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani has displayed a firm position on the upcoming polls, with consistent statements vowing that there will be no cancellation of the referendum despite calls from Baghdad, neighboring countries, and international powers. 

Turkey's official line - as voiced many times by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other prominent government figures - is that this vote should not take place as it would make no positive contribution to regional peace and stability. They have described the decision as a grave mistake that it could deepen ethnic and sectarian fault lines in the region. 

This stance is consistent with Turkey's traditional foreign policy since the early 1990s on protecting the territorial integrity of Iraq, and of Syria regarding the ongoing civil war that threatens the disintegration of its southern neighbor.    

During negotiations with the United States before the second Iraq War in 2003, Turkey's two main red lines were about protecting the territorial integrity of Iraq and guarding the rights of Turkmens in Iraq's oil-rich Kirkuk province. 

There were external and internal reasons for this policy. Many believe that breaking the unity of Iraq will ultimately increase the influence of Iran on Iraqi territory and will only create more ethnic and sectarian-based problems. What's more, this move could also have reflections in Syria as the Syrian Kurds seek autonomous rights in the northern part of the country, bordering Turkey.  

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