Is it too early to speculate on a post-corona new world order?: Op-ed

The new world order has not come into being as one would have expected in the wake of the Soviet collapse 30 years ago. In fact, it is still in the making, with no signs of settling down. The current coronavirus pandemic, which is ravaging every corner of the world, could perhaps bring this distant prospect closer to us than imagined.

Today there is no lack of debate on how the new economic and geopolitical order will be recalibrated in the post-corona world. We know that creating a new order requires dramatic turns in human life and is a fairly slow-moving process that unfolds through predictable ways. However, in an age of unexpected crises, there was always the possibility that a wild card could enter the system from outside to effect unpredictable, yet significant, changes.

At the moment, it is difficult to tell if the new coronavirus is such an event or not. We shall see as it progresses, but we should also contemplate alternative futures to inspire government and business leaders.

A pandemic to disrupt the established order

Globalization is, of course, not the cause of the disease we face, but it makes the consequences of disease outbreaks much more far-reaching. In doing so, it creates a geopolitical and economic dimension that will help shape the global system in unforeseen ways.

The comparative advantage of global trade and cost-effective international supply chains is in part offset by the comparative disadvantage that new diseases can create around the globe and the consequences to both health and international trade.

Remember that the social fabric of ancient Greece was demolished by an epidemic that killed a third of Athenians, including their leader, Pericles. The 14th-century "Black Death"...