As Tusk Returns and PiS Struggles, Is Poland Primed for an Early Election?

Leader of the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party Jaroslaw Kaczynski attends a press conference at the Polish parliament building in Warsaw, Poland, 07 July 2021. EPA-EFE/PAWEL SUPERNAK Family ties

Actually, PiS's struggles predate Tusk's return. For over a year now, Kaczynski has been struggling to impose his will across the coalition's nominal parliamentary majority, which together with PiS is made up of MPs from the parties of radical Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro and the economically liberal Economic Development Minister Jaroslaw Gowin.

Among the casualties of this inability to control the Sejm have been PiS's initiatives to tighten the animal welfare laws (Ziobro's veto) and the introduction of higher taxes on the media (Gowin's veto). And now Kaczynski is proving unable to force his party members to respect the new anti-nepotism declaration adopted in early July, which caused Tusk to laugh out loud: "This is extreme ineptitude or outright mockery."

Tusk's attacks against PiS's nepotism are beginning to hit a nerve: Kaczynski is fighting his own party's big guns, whose wives and family members are frequently employed in state institutions or companies. One report suggests that some 350 PiS family members are employed in state-owned companies. Opposition politicians talk of "PiS fat cats" and mockingly repeat old claims by Kaczynski that "one does not go into politics for money".

The inability to maintain a stable majority is a major blow to PiS's ability to govern. After six attempts, PiS finally conceded defeat and endorsed a moderate candidate of the opposition for the position of commissioner for human rights, or ombudsman. Marcin Wiacek was confirmed by overwhelming majorities in both the Sejm and Senate in...