Has Russia Already ‘Won’ Over Ukraine?

Russia is taking an awfully long time to invade Ukraine. It may happen any day. President Joe Biden appears to think it's either inevitable or a "distinct possibility" some time in February, as he told Ukraine's President Zelenskyy in a Thursday phone call.

But blitzkrieg this isn't. Russian troops have been rumbling noisily around Ukraine's borders for months, at least since October 2021. Even in the 19th century, invasions were faster than this. France declared war on Prussia in July 1870. The Prussians were in Paris and everything was over six months later.

Russia's endless prevarication begs the question of whether invading all/some of Ukraine is actually its end-goal.

No one questions the reality of the threat, with well over 100,000 troops sitting on the border. But, if the goal was to test NATO's unity on Ukraine, rather than Ukraine's military defences, the Kremlin has already won - without firing a shot.

Ukrainians and activists from different counties of the former Soviet Union attend the 'Say No to Putin' rally in downtown Kiev, Ukraine, 09 January 2022. People gathered to show their support to protesters in Kazakhstan and to protest against the politics of Russia, which they accuse of trying to regain control of the former Soviet republics. EPA-EFE/SERGEY DOLZHENKO

If anyone expected the Western alliance to unite over the threat to Ukraine in the same way that it united over Kosovo in the late-1990s, forget it. All that's happened is that cracks exposed earlier over Syria have widened.

The Baltic and Central European states on NATO's eastern front want a forceful response to Russia, starting with NATO reinforcements in their countries - but they have not been supported consistently by their...